Argus introduced a Polyethylene Transaction Index (PTI) in July 2024 as an alternative price reference service for the North American Polyethylene (PE) markets. The purpose was to provide an alternative price service that addresses changes in the export and domestic markets given the large increases in PE production in the USA
Indeed, PE exports reached a critical inflection point in 2024 with November exports exceeding domestic demand, a first in the history of PE trade for the US and Canada. This trend will continue as PE domestic production is expected to grow further in 2025 with several of the newer plants continuing to increase operating rates going into 2025. This would include Shell’s 1500 kta facility in Monaca, PA; Nova’s 450 kta plant in Joffre, Ontario; and Bayport Polymers 625 kta plant in Pasadena, Texas. Dow is expected to startup a new 625 kta solution PE plant in Freeport, Texas in 2025 as well.
Given that domestic demand has increased only 7% from 2013 – 2024 and production has increased 53%, one can expect that 2025 will be another year of oversupply and export volumes will continue to exceed domestic sales volume. Domestic supplier strategies are having to adjust to a new norm as exports exceed domestic sales and producers work to improve margins and operating rates. The PTI index may be another resource as companies look at domestic and export strategies. PTI index prices are reported on the first business day of the month and are not impacted by non-market adjustment activities, nor contract resets
This webinar will review the latest trade balances in the US and how domestic prices may be impacted, particularly in the contract market monthly settlements and how the PTI service is reported.
Learning Objectives:
- PE exports impact on domestic prices
- Current price settlement issues
- PTI as an alternative solution for prime resin sales in the US